【摘要】 近年来极端降水事件的发生频率和强度呈显著增加趋势,基于自然灾害系统理论,选取灾情的主要指标:暴雨灾害频次、死亡人口和农田淹没面积,探讨了1950—2000年福建省暴雨灾害的灾情时空分布及趋势特征。研究发现:1)从时间变化上看,无论是暴雨灾害频次、死亡人口还是农田淹没面积,受灾最严重的月份均为5月和6月,其分别占全年灾情的68. 0%、81. 4%和76. 2%。5月份的暴雨灾害灾情总体变化趋势均为先增加后减少,而6月份总体趋势均为先增加后减小然后再增加; 2)从区域分布来看,年代际死亡人口的重灾区集中于南平市和龙岩市;农田淹没面积灾情最严重的地区为南平市、尤溪县、漳浦县、福州市区和闽侯县,并且有逐年扩大的趋势; 3)从变化趋势上看,年代际死亡人口呈上升趋势,年际死亡人口约以6年为一个变化周期,且年际差有增大的趋势;年代际农田淹没面积呈波动上升趋势,年际农田淹没面积呈周期性上升,其周期从9年缩短到6年。随着气候变化(如台风)和人类活动(如快速城镇化)的双重影响下,福建面临越来越大的灾害风险,防灾减灾部门应给予密切关注。更多还原

【Abstract】 Recently,the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events are significant increasing. Based on the disaster system theory,the main disaster indicators including the frequency of rainstorm disaster,the death toll and farmland inundated area were selected. This study discussed the temporal-spatial characteristics of rainstorm disaster in Fujian Province from 1950 to 2000 as well as the trends. The results showed that: 1) In terms of temporal variation,regardless of the frequency of rainstorms,the death toll or farmland inundated area,the most severely affected months are May and June,which accounted for 68. 0%,81. 4% and 76. 2% of the total disaster situation,respectively. The overall trend of rainstorm disaster in May increased firstly and then decreased,while the overall trend in June increased at first and then decrease,and then re-increase. 2) In spatial variation,the hardesthit areas for death population concentrated in Nanping City and Longyan City; the hardest-hit areas for farmland inundated area are Nanping City,Youxi County,Zhangpu County,Fuzhou City and Minhou County. There is a tendency to expand year by year. 3) In terms of trend,the decadal death population is increasing,and the annual death population shows a period of about 6 years. The annual gap is increasing. The decadal farmland inundated area fluctuates,and decadal farmland inundated area periodically rises with a cycle shorten from 9 years to 6 years.更多还原