【摘要】 基于19个环境气候变量和大叶桂樱(Laurocerasus zippeliana Miq.)345个标本分布记录,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和地理信息系统(GIS)分析预测了大叶桂樱在我国的潜在分布区,评估了影响大叶桂樱潜在地理分布的主要气候因子。结果表明:当前气候环境下,大叶桂樱潜在适生区分布在广东、广西、贵州、云南、江西、福建、甘肃、四川、浙江、湖北、湖南、陕西、台湾等省份,其中其最适生区主要集中在广西、贵州、广东、福建;影响其当前分布的环境气候因子有降水和温度,且降水较温度影响更大。未来气候下,大叶桂樱的分布有向北迁移的趋势,并且其最适生区面积具有减少和离散的趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on data of 19 environmental climate variables and 345 geographic distribution records from specimens of Laurocerasus zippeliana,the potential distribution area of Laurocerasus zippeliana in China were analyzed and predicted by using MaxEnt ecological model and GIS technology. The main climatic factors restricting the potential geographical distribution of Laurocerasus zippeliana were evaluated. Result shows that under the current climate environment, Laurocerasus zippeliana have extensive potential distribution in Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Gansu, Sichuan, Zhejiang, Hubei, Hunan, Shaanxi and Taiwan Province. Among them, the most suitable areas for Laurocerasus zippeliana are mainly concentrated in Guangxi, Guizhou, Guangdong and Fujian province. There are seven environmental variables, just precipitation of the warmest quarter, precipitation of the wettest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month, mean temperature of the driest quarter, mean temperature of the coldest quarter and annual temperature, which show a large amount of contribution to potential distribution of Laurocerasus zippeliana. Overall, the precipitation has greater impact than the temperature. In the future climate, the distribution of Laurocerasus zippeliana will migrate northward, and the area of its optimum habitat will decrease and disperse.更多还原