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滇西水汞观测的地震短临预报指标

SHORT-IMPENDING EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION INDEXES OF MERCURY OBSERVATION IN WESTERN YUNNAN

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【作者】 郭绍忠黄绍裘张鸿飞

【Author】 Guo Shaozhong ① Huang Shaoqiu ② Zhang Hongfei ① (① Seismological Bureau of Lijiang Prefecture, Lijiang, 674100) (② Earthquake Prediction Test Site in Western Yunnan, Dali,67100)

【机构】 云南省丽江地区地震局国家地震局滇西地震预报实验场

【摘要】 通过对滇西下关、弥渡、洱源江干、洱源滇20#、保山等水汞在12次地震前异常特征分析的结果表明:汞异常形态清楚,异常变化率大,单项以多点突跳为主,整体以群体突跳为主;短临异常持续时间数十天,地震多数发生在首次异常后23—111天的88天之内;大震存在中短期异常和时空演变规律;对应地震范围受震中距和地震构造的双重制约,似乎与孕震能大小和传播途径有关;大体存在异常持续时间越长,异常数量越多,震级越大的关系;群体指标比单项指标预报效能强。作者最后对预报指标可能的物理机制进行了讨论。

【Abstract】 The anomalous characteristics of mercury in groundwater in Xiaguan, Midu, Jianggan of Eryuan, Yunnan No20 of Eryuan and Baoshan, Western Yunnan before the 12 earthquakes are analysed in this paper and results are shown as follows: the mercury anomaly has clear form, large variation rate, dominant multiple point jump in single item and dominant colony jump as a whole; the short-impending anomaly continued for several ten days and most of the earthquakes occurred within 88 days from the 23rd day to the 111st day after the first anomaly; there were medium-short anomolies and time-space evolution regularity in large earthquakes; the ranges corresponding to the earthquakes were restricted by both epicentral distance and seismotectonics,which seems relative to the the size and propagation way of earthquake preparation energy; in general, the longer anomaly duration time was and the more anomaly amount was, the larger magnitude was and prediction effect of the indexes as a whole is better than as single item indexes. Lastly, possible physical mechanism of the prediction indexes is discussed by the authors.

【基金】 云南省科委93D103基金
  • 【文献出处】 地震研究 ,JOURNAL OF SEISMOLOGICAL RESEARCH , 编辑部邮箱 ,1998年01期
  • 【分类号】P315.7
  • 【被引频次】5
  • 【下载频次】28
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