【摘要】 本文对中国大陆西部６．７级以上、东部６．０级以上浅源强震的最强余震时间及次数分布规律进行探讨。应用简单的贝叶斯判别方法，以主震后初期的强余震序列特征和主震震源区的地震地质特征作为判别指标，判断自主震后１５年内最强余震的分布时段和强余震次数类型。对上述方法的外推检验结果进行Ｗａｌｌｅｎ评分，效果比较好（分布时段的评分为０．６６，次数类型的评分为０．５８）。更多还原

【Abstract】 The distribution patterns of strongest aftershock occurrence time andfrequency of the shallow strong earthquakes with M≥6 in. East and withM≥6.7 in West China have been explored in this paper. Using simple Beyesdistingushing method, strong aftershock sequence and seismogeological features around the main shock source areas can be taken as the indexes todetermine the strongest aftershock patterns 15 years after mainshocks. Extrapolated checks of above methods were given Wallen marks which show goodresults (distribution time step’s mark is 0.66, frequency type mark is 0.58) .更多还原