【摘要】 从云南鲁甸6.5级地震序列活动特征、序列参数、历史地震活动类比、余震精定位、较大地震震源机制、发震构造分析等方面分析了鲁甸地震序列的序列类型及后续强余震预测问题。分析认为,鲁甸地震序列余震活动表现出明显的阶段性。鲁甸地震序列M≥4.0地震时间间隔遵从线性关系、精定位结果显示余震呈共轭分布、地震震源机制结果显示震源机制一致性程度较低、历史地震序列类比表明鲁甸地震序列与1974年大关7.1级地震序列活动特征类似,这些均表明鲁甸地震序列类型为主—余型。更多还原

【Abstract】 We discuss the seismic sequence type and prediction of subsequent strong aftershocks of Ludian MS6. 5earthquake on Aug. 3,2014 through the activity characteristics,the sequence parameters,the accurate location of aftershock and the focal mechanism of the bigger earthquake of Ludian MS6. 5 earthquake sequence, the analogy with historical earthquake activity and the seismogenic structure. The result shows that the characteristic of aftershock activity of Ludian MS6. 5 earthquake sequence appeared the obvious phased. The time interval of M ≥4. 0 strong aftershocks obeys the linear relationship,and the accurate location result shows that the distribution of aftershock is conjugate. The source mechanism results showthat the consistency of focal mechanism is in the lowdegree,the results of analogy with history sequence indicate that the activity characteristic of Ludian earthquake sequence is same as that of Daguan MS7. 1 earthquake sequence in 1974. These results all make sure that the type of Ludian earthquake sequence is the mainshock-aftershock.更多还原