【摘要】 利用"传染型余震序列"(ETAS)模型,考虑不同的截止震级和序列持续时间的影响,对2014年鲁甸6.5级地震后9 d内的序列参数特征进行了研究。结果表明,当选取截止震级MC=ML2.0时,可获得相对稳定可靠的p值和α值等序列参数,其中p=0.89~1.10,显示了较慢的衰减特征,α值在震后5.0 d出现大幅下降,表明激发次级余震的能力出现显著变化。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence( ETAS) model, considering the influence of different cutoff magnitude and duration time,we investigated the parameter characteristics in the early stage of Yunnan Ludian MS6. 5 earthquake sequence in 2014. It is observed that the p and α values kept stable and reliable when the cutoff magnitude MC= ML2. 0 was selected. The result of p = 0. 89 ~ 1. 10 indicated that it had a slowdecay rate of aftershocks. The α-value showed a sharp drop on the 5thday after the main shock,which indicated the ability of provoking aftershocks change greatly.更多还原