【摘要】 利用广义极值分布研究地震最大发震震级的规律,给出了广义极值分布下地震危险性分析的相关公式与方法,并对台湾地区历史地震资料进行极值统计分析,发现最大震级超过7级的地震理论发震次数与实际发震次数完全一致,在此基础上预测了未来几年发震的危险性。更多还原

【Abstract】 We study the maximum magnitude laws of earthquake by use of the generalized extreme value distribution,and give related methods and formula of seismic risk analysis with the distribution of generalized extreme value.From the statistical analysis of extreme values on historical earthquake data in Taiwan,we find out that the number of earthquake occurrence calculated by generalized extreme value distribution is completely consistent with that of actual earthquake occurrence when the maximum magnitude is greater than M7.On the basis of it,we predict the seismic risk in Taiwan in the coming years.更多还原