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基于层次分析法的地震预警分级研究
Classification of Earthquake Warning Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process
【摘要】 地震预警是利用地震预报的骨干指标,采用层次分析法,计算分析在区域(分区)和震级已确定的情况下发生地震的紧迫程度。通过把华北地区分为不同的预警区域(南部、西北部和东北部),建立区域地震震情指标预警模型,确定了华北地区14个地震预警判据,利用层次分析法,通过震情指标的相应运算,建立区域指标预警系统,根据预警等级判断标准得出每次震例的红、橙、黄、蓝预警等级。最后对华北地区不同区域的强震进行回顾性检验,在震前得到预警等级较为理想,为政府采取相应防震和应急措施提供依据。
【Abstract】 Earthquake early warning is defined as using the main indexes of earthquake prediction to calculate and analyze the urgency of a given-magnitude earthquake by the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) for a given region(or sub-region).We divide the North China into 3 earthquake-early-warning regions—the South,the Northwest,and the Northeast,and build early-warning models of indexes of regional seismic situations to determine 14 early-warning criterion in North China.Using AHP,and performing the calculation of indexes of seismic situations,we build an early-warning system of regional indexes and get the early warning level—Red,Orange,Yellow,and Blue for each earthquake by early-warning criterion.Finally,we check the early-warning system with the historical strong earthquake in North China and get the ideal result.
【Key words】 earthquake warning; AHP; the strong earthquakes in North China;
- 【文献出处】 地震研究 ,Journal of Seismological Research , 编辑部邮箱 ,2011年03期
- 【分类号】P315.72
- 【被引频次】9
- 【下载频次】201