【摘要】 根据华东地区的地震活动特点,定义较简单的半径搜索方法,遵循一定的准则挑选出1976年以来华东地区满足震前累积应变加速释放模型(ASR)的14次ML≥4.5地震序列。将"破裂—时间分析"法的非线性方程分成两个线性方程,采用线性最小二乘法拟合参数k/m与主震矩的经验关系,确定华东地区的ASR模型,并用来预测主震的时间和震级。经检验该方法预测震级误差约为±0.3,发震时间误差约±1.68 a。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the characteristics of seismic activity in East China,we define a simple approach of searching radius and choose fourteen ML≥4.5 earthquake sequences since 1976 in East China which satisfy the pre-seismic Accelerating Strain Release(ASR) model.We express the nonlinear time-to-failure analysis equation with two linear equations and fit the empirical relation between the coefficient k/m and the main seismic moment tensor by means of Linear Least Square method in order to construct ASR model of East China for the prediction of the time and magnitude of the main shock in East China.Comparing the magnitude and the original time from the ASR model with the ones of the occurred strong shocks,we find that the magnitude error is ±0.3 and the time error is ±1.68 years.更多还原