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通海地磁Z分量拟合差及月距平与云南强震危险性分析
Strong Earthquake Risk Analysis in Yunnan Based on Fitting Residual and Monthly Mean of Geomagnetic Z-component in Tonghai
【摘要】 对1986年以来的通海地磁相对观测Z分量月均值资料进行拟合及月距平分析发现,云南地区M≥6.0强震发生前,通海地磁Z分量速率变化显著,具有加速上升或加速下降的变化特征。2009年3月至2010年6月出现加速上升48.5 nT异常变化,持续时间达15个月,由震例统计及指标显示,未来1年或稍长时间,云南地区存在发生6级左右甚至7级地震的危险。
【Abstract】 Through fitting and monthly-anomaly analysis of the monthly mean value of the relative geomagnetic Z-component at Thonghai station since 1986,we find an evident variation of velocity of Z-component—accelerated rise or fall before the M≥6.0 earthquakes in Yunnan.From March 2009 to June 2010,the velocity of Z-component acceleratedly rose for 48.5nT and the duration lasted for 15 months.According to the statistics of earthquake cases in Yunnan and the earthquake-prediction indexes,we conclude that there exists a risk of earthquake with M6.0 or even M7.0 in one year or some time longer.
【Key words】 geomagnetic Z-component; fitting and monthly-anomaly analysis; precursory characteristic; Yunnan region;
- 【文献出处】 地震研究 ,Journal of Seismological Research , 编辑部邮箱 ,2011年03期
- 【分类号】P315.72
- 【被引频次】2
- 【下载频次】33