【摘要】 系统分析了云南地区M≥6.0、M≥6.5和M≥7.0地震的间隔时间分布特征;运用M≥5.0地震目录,基于G—R关系的年发生率和泊松分布模型,构建了云南地区M≥6.0、M≥6.5和M≥7.0地震的概率预测模型;结合间隔时间分布统计特征和概率预测模型,对云南地区M≥6.0、M≥6.5和M≥7.0地震,建立了具有概率水平的三级预测预警指标:C(黄)、B(橙)、A(红)。更多还原

【Abstract】 The interval distribution features of the earthquakes with M≥6.0,M≥6.5 and M≥7.0 occurred from 1900 to 2009 in Yunnan region are systematically analyzed in this paper.Based on the G-R relation and Poisson model,the probability model of the earthquakes with M≥6.0,M≥6.5 and M≥7.0 are built by using the M≥5.0 earthquake catalogs.Then,the three-grade,prediction-warning indexes(C(yellow),B(orange),A(red))for the earthquakes with M≥6.0,M≥6.5 and M≥7.0 are developed on the basis of the interval features and the probability model.更多还原