【摘要】 通过搜集地震灾害及经济损失评估资料,研究地震灾害特征,总结经济损失规律,提取地震灾害损失评估经验模型。以此为基础,提出一种初步评估地震灾害经济损失的方法。研究震级与人员伤亡的关系,形成人员伤亡评估经验模型;采用适合本地区的人员伤亡评估经验模型,估算人员伤亡。研究历史地震烈度分布特征,根据震情速报的地点、震级初步确定地震灾区范围;按烈度分布的一般规律初步划分评估区;结合地震应急数据库统计不同评估区内房屋建筑面积,或者查阅当地年鉴统计不同评估区内人口数,按人均房屋建筑面积估算灾区房屋建筑面积;研究历史地震房屋建筑震害,给出房屋建筑地震破坏比经验模型(震害矩阵);按国家标准《地震现场工作第4部分:灾害直接损失评估》(2005)选取适合的损失比;收集不同结构类型房屋建筑的重置单价。遵循地震灾害损失评估原理,可以快速评估计算房屋建筑的地震灾害经济损失。研究历史地震中其他工程结构经济损失与地震灾害总损失的关系,给出其他工程结构经济损失占地震灾害总损失比例的经验模型,据此初步估计其他工程结构的经济损失。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,the data of earthquake disaster and the evaluation on economic loss are collected,disaster-characteristics is studied,the law of economic loss is summarized,experiential models of evaluation of earthquake disaster loss are picked up.On the basis of these jobs,one method of first-step evaluation on economic loss is put forward.The experiential model of earthquake casualty is put forward by studying on the relation between the casualty and earthquake magnitude.According to the fast-measured data of earthquake site and time,the laws of intensity-distribution got by studying the characteristics of historical intensity,the range of earthquake stricken area and those of different evaluation-ranges can be carved up.Thereby,the area of house buildings in the range can be counted from the earthquake emergency response database,or estimated by the proportion of the house possession per person and the population gained from statistical yearbook.Experiential damage ratio of buildings(disaster index matrix)can be picked up by studying the historical building disaster.Loss ratio can be selected from <Post-earthquake field works-Part 4:Assessment of direct economic loss of earthquake disaster>(GB/T18208.4-2005).Replacement unit price of various kinds of house buildings can be collected from the local government.So far the loss of house buildings can be estimated quickly by following the evaluation principle of house building.Other loss can be reckoned by the proportion of the other loss to the house building loss of an event.With the accumulation of the information and field investigation,the earthquake loss result of first-step evaluation should be adjusted actively in order to getting an approximate result.更多还原