【摘要】 利用川滇地区具有完整仪测的地震目录 ,重点对云南地区及可能发生大震的地震带 (区 ) ,计算地震学相对独立、且具有明确物理意义的参数 :b值、频度、应变能、断层面总面积、C值、D值与Mf值等 ;提出了统计地震活动性参数的异常项目月变化率R值的方法 ,以 2倍方差异常标准线定为异常判定线来揭示云南地区强震孕育的短临特征。结果发现 ,云南地区 6 7级地震前和各个地震带 (区 )中强震、强震前 1～ 3个月内 ,出现地震活动性参数异常项目月变化率R值的异常增强—降低或异常增强、降低独立出现的现象 ;并通过历史强震震例检验和从区域、构造的特性对R值结果作了初步探讨 ,为云南地区强震的短临预测预报提供一种地震学的综合方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Though using the integral instrument-recorded catalogue in Sichuan-Yunnan regi on , the seismic parameters which are relatively independent and of explicit physic al meaning such as b value, frequency, strain energy, total area o f fracture pla ne, C value, D value and M f value etc., are calculated mainly in Yunnan region a nd the seismic belts where the strong earthquakes may occur. In this way, the pa per develops the R value method to count monthly variety ra tio of anomaly items of seismic parameters. The study on short-term and impendin g feature of strong earthquake’s genesis in Yunnan area using double er ror of mean square as anomaly criteria shows that in Yunnan area, before M ≥6 7 earthquakes or 1 to 3 months before moderate and strong earthquakes i n each seismic zone (or area) , R value(namely monthly variety r at io) will experience a increase-to-decrease course or an increasing course or a d ecreasing course. Researching primarily on R value through proof-test of histori cal strong-earthquake cases and in terms of regional or tectonic features, a so rt of seismological synthetic method to short-term and impending prediction is p rovided in this paper.更多还原