【摘要】 根据区域水氡平均年离散度变化及应用“地下流体预报方法ＳＨＥＰ软件”，对水化资料和一些Ｒｎ，Ｃｌ－，Ｃａ２＋单项异常进行综合分析，于１９９６年１０月提出：从１９９６年１０月下旬至１９９７年下半年，在南长带海域（尤其是东经１２１°±１°，北纬３３°±１°的区域）有发生Ｍｓ６．０级左右地震的可能，要特别注意１９９６年１０月下旬至１９９７年上半年（信度ＣＦ＝０．６）。本次南黄海６．１级地震映证了这一预报意见更多还原

【Abstract】 The hydrochemical data and single term anomalies of Rn, Cl and Ca 2+ are analysed and synthesized using the variation of annual average discreteness of regional water radon, and the software SHEP of underground fluid forecasting method. In Oct.1996, it was predicted that a earthquake of M s 6.1 or so may occur in the Sea area of Chang Nan earthquake zone from lower decade of october, 1996 to end of 1997, specially to June, 1997, in which credibihty is 0 6 . As a result the South Yellow Sea earthquake of M s 6.1 occurred on Nov.9, 1996.更多还原