【摘要】 考虑地震作用效应和管道抗力的随机特性,建立了埋地管道单元的概率预测模型,评估其在地震时的震害状态。把供水管网系统简化为边权有向网络图,通过Monte Carlo随机模拟过程,近似再现管网中各管段的破坏状态,进而分别结合图论理论方法和模糊关系矩阵法,对管网进行连通可靠性分析。由于Monte Carlo模拟算法是以管网各节点与水源点处于连通状态的近似频率计算来代替精确概率分析,为获得稳定的计算结果,对所用算例进行了5000次模拟。算例分析表明,基于图论方法和模糊关系矩阵法得到的管网连通可靠性结果基本相等。更多还原

【Abstract】 Considering the randomness of seismic response and resistance of the pipe,probabilistic forecasting model was built to evaluate the pipe’s earthquake disaster.Simplifying the water supply network system as an edge-weighted directed network figure,according to the seismic reliability analysis,each pipeline’s damage state was simulated by Monte Carlo random process.Connectivity reliability of the network was measured by graph theory and fuzzy relation matrix method separately.Since precision probability analysis was substituted by the approximate frequency of the connectivity between nodes of the network and water source in Monte Carlo method,5000 simulations were performed to obtain steady numerical solution.Results indicate that there is almost no difference between graph theory method and fuzzy relation matrix method in the network’s connectivity reliability analysis.更多还原