【摘要】 确定强震复发间隔变异系数在强震发生概率的计算中具有重要意义.考虑到由小样本量地震序列计算得到变异系数的估计值与实际值可能存在一定的偏差,本文提出了一种计算强震复发间隔变异系数的新方法.该方法首先利用最大似然估计法计算出大量小样本地震序列的变异系数估计值;然后先对这些变异系数的估计值进行标准化处理,再对这些标准化的变异系数估计值进行统计分析;最后在广泛搜集的39个地震序列的基础上,利用该方法计算得到一个通用的变异系数值(α=0.34),并讨论了该值的物理意义及其应用.更多还原

【Abstract】 Determining the aperiodicity parameterα(equivalent to the familiar coefficient of variation)is important for calculating the possibility of large earthquake occurrence.Considering the deviation between the estimate values ofαfrom small sample of earthquake sequences and the actual values ofα,this paper presents a new method for computingα.Firstly,a large number of estimated values ofαfor small samples from earthquake sequences are calculated by maximum likelihood estimate method,and then the estimated values are standardized and statistically analyzed.Finally,based on the 39 recurrent earthquake sequences,ageneral value ofαis given(α=0.34),and the physical meaning and application of the value are also discussed.更多还原