【摘要】 基于中国各构造区1900年以来的本尼奥夫应变累积释放序列,采用协整分析和因果关系检验方法研究表明,青藏高原与华北地区地震活动的应变释放存在着长期均衡关系;在某种程度上,青藏高原地区地震应变释放是华北地区应变释放发生变化的原因;青藏高原对华北地区地震应变释放的影响存在约20多年的滞后效应.本文结果对两个构造单元的地球动力学研究提供了统计学证据.更多还原

【Abstract】 This article use cointegration and Granger causality test to study interrelationship of seismic activities,based on accumulated Benioff strain series released by various tectonic areas of China since 1900. The result shows that there is a long term equilibrium between Qingzang Plateau and North China seismic activities. This implies that the strain released by Qingzang Plateau,to a certain extent,induced strain changes in North China. The influence of Qingzang Plateau activity on that of North China showed a delay of about 20 years. There is a complex relationship between seismic activities of Qingzang Plateau and Tianshan seismic zone,which can not be simply depicted by a linear or causal correlation. There is no causality relationship between the earthquake activity in North-South seismic zone and that in North China. The equilibrium between these two areas is also obscure. These results give a statistical support for geodynamics research.更多还原