【摘要】 震后对地震死亡人数做出可靠的估计,可以为现场抗震救灾指挥部的指挥部署和民政部门的救灾安排工作提供有益的参考,能在一定程度上提高抗震救灾的效率.作者收集了汶川地震各时刻的死亡人数,采用修正指数曲线进行拟合,并与指数函数进行了比较,同时又用集集地震和阪神地震的数据进行了验证,结果均表明修正指数曲线的拟合结果较好.该拟合函数可能形成地震死亡人数的估计方法,并为各级抗震救灾指挥部提供救灾决策的参考.更多还原

【Abstract】 Making reliable estimation of the casualties after an earthquake provides useful information for deploying and arranging relief work,and improves the efficiency of earthquake relief work to a certain extent.The authors have collected the casualties of 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,1999 Jiji(Chi-Chi),earthquake and 1995 Kobe,Japan,earthquake,and fitted the data by using a modified exponential function.The result shows that the fitness of the modified exponential model is better than the previous.We may estimate final possible casualties of future great earthquakes using this corrected model.更多还原