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地震视应力在地震预测中的应用
APPLICATION OF APPARENT STRESS IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION
【摘要】 选取1999年7月—2005年4月云南省数字地震台网记录到的中小地震数字化波形资料,在假设中小地震震源位移谱符合ω2模型的基础上,利用震源位移谱低频水平与拐角频率计算得到了1020次中小地震的视应力值.研究发现,在云南地区,地震视应力具有较好的预测意义,中小地震的视应力值超过0.9MPa,可以作为预测该地区未来可能发生中强地震的一个参考指标.其相应的地震预报能力评分R值具有较高的置信度.
【Abstract】 On the basis of the assumption that ω2 model accords with source displacement spectra of moderate-small shocks, we calculate the apparent stress values of 1 020 moderate-small shocks recorded by the Digital Seismic Network of Yunnan Province by using the low-frequency flat level and corner frequencies. The results show that the apparent stress is of good significance in earthquake prediction. The moderate-small shock with apparent stress larger than 0.9 MPa can be used as a referential index to predict moderate-strong earthquakes in Yunnan area. And its relevant predictability evaluation (R value) has a high confidence level.
【Key words】 apparent stress; predictability evaluation; ω2 model; confidence level;
- 【文献出处】 地震学报 ,Acta Seismologica Sinica , 编辑部邮箱 ,2007年04期
- 【分类号】P315.7
- 【被引频次】26
- 【下载频次】201