【摘要】 介绍了Allegre的地壳介质破裂的尺度理论和根据该理论建立一种预测地震发生时间方法的可能性.作为震例研究了甘肃山丹—民乐6.1级地震的地震学前兆(地震空间相关长度和尾波Qc值)特征.结果表明,地震空间相关长度和尾波Qc值在震前都呈增长趋势,用幂次率关系拟合了这两种参数的上升变化形态.这为利用地震空间相关长度和尾波Q值的监测资料建立一种预测地震发生时间的方法和找到预测指标打下了基础.更多还原

【Abstract】 In the paper, we introduce Allegre′s scaling-rule theory of rock fracture and the probability to develop a method for predicting earthquake occurrence time on its basis. As an example, we study the characteristics of seismological precursors (seismic spatial correlation length and coda Q_c) associated with the earthquake (M_S=6.1) occurred in Shandan-Minle, Gansu Province. The results show an increasing trend of seismic spatial correlation length and coda Q_c before the earthquake. And a power exponent relation is used to fit the increasing variation form of these two parameters. The study has provided a basis for creating a method and finding indexes to predict the earthquake occurrence time by using the monitored seismic spatial correlation length and coda Q_c.更多还原