【摘要】 千岛岛弧地区属于全球地震活动最为活跃的地区之一. 本文利用哈佛大学测定的千岛岛弧地区地震的矩心矩张量(CMT)解, 分析该地区震源机制的一致性特征, 提出利用震源机制和构造应力场的一致性参数a进行地震预测的思路. 研究结果表明, MW≥7.5 地震之前,都有一致性参数a降低的现象, a的低值起始的时间在发生大震之前的10 多天至110 多天,a的低值截止的日期距大震在30多天至2 天. 相互之间虽然并不完全一致, 但是差别不大.这种现象的稳定性, 尚需时间的检验, 但是设想在长达数百公里的地区, 连续发生MW≥5.3的地震的震源机制都与构造应力场一致, 应当不是随机的现象, 而是一种具有预测意义的现象. 当积累的震例足够多时, 则有可能确定统一的评判标准和预测准则.更多还原

【Abstract】 The Central Moment Tensor (CMT) solution obtained by Harvard University for the earthquakes in Kurile Islands area is used in the paper to analyze the consistent focal mechanism in the area, and the idea to make earthquake prediction based on the consistent parameter a of focal mechanism and stress field is proposed. The results obtained from the study indicate that before the M W≥7.5 earthquakes, the consistent parameter a decreases, which starts from 10~110 days or so and ends from about 30~2 days before the great earthquakes. Although the phenomenon is not totally the same for individual earthquakes, the difference between them is not large. Certainly, the phenomenon should be tested by time, but it is not random, because the phenomenon of consistent focal mechanism and stress field for the M W≥5.3 earthquake appears successively in an area of several hundreds kilometers in length. It should be a phenomenon of predictive significance. When the accumulated earthquake examples are sufficient, uniform judgment criteria and prediction principles can be stipulated then.更多还原