【摘要】 应力释放模型过去主要用于研究大范围历史大地震活动规律 .本文对应力释放模型进行了改进 ,对其能否运用于区域更小、时段更短、震级更低的情况进行了探讨 ;以台湾地区近百年 6级以上地震为例的研究结果表明 ,应力释放模型仍然适用 .在回溯性的地震预测检验中 ,用改进的应力释放模型计算出台湾地区地震发生的条件概率强度 ,并用其预测 6级以上地震的发震时刻 .结果表明 ,其预测精度优于泊松模型更多还原

【Abstract】 Stress release model used to be applied to seismicity study of large historical earthquakes in a space of large scale. In this paper, we improve the stress release model, and discuss whether the stress release model is still applicable or not in the case of smaller spatio-temporal scale and weaker earthquakes. As an example of testing the model, we have analyzed the M≥6 earthquakes in recent about 100 years. The result shows that the stress release model is still applicable. The earthquake conditional probability intensity in Taiwan area is calculated with the improved stress release model. We see that accuracy of earthquake occurrence time predicted by the improved stress release model is higher than that by Poisson model in the test of retrospect earthquake prediction.更多还原