【摘要】 河西走廊是我国中原通往西北地区的重要交通运输要道。受印度板块与欧亚板块于中生代末—新生代早期的碰撞及持续至今的向北推挤作用的远程效应的影响,河西走廊及邻区是现今地壳活动地区,其中地震活动为其主要表现形式。已有地震资料分析显示,公元1555年以来划分为2个平静期和2个活跃期,现在处于1920年以来的第2个活跃期内;而最近100年的第2个活跃期内又可以划分为5个相对平静阶段和5个相对活跃阶段,目前处于2002年以来的第5个活跃阶段内。从大震重复周期分析,区内各断裂带发生7.0～7.5级大地震的时间间隔为2000～3000年左右。结合各断裂带最近一次地震的时间,推测未来100年发生7级以上大震可能性很大的区段是三个墩—松山地区、玉门地区、磁窑口—苦水沟地区和嘉峪关地区;未来100年发生7级以上大震可能性较大的区段是石包城—昌马大坝区段和高台地区。与地震活动相关的研究工作应该在确认活动断裂的基础上加强大震重复周期的研究与分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Hexi corridor,with its particular geographical position,is an important line connecting middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and NW China.Affected by the late Mesozoic-early Cenozoic collision between Indian Plate and Eurasian Plate and the continuous northward compression the Hexi corridor and its adjacent area occur as a strong Crustal movement zone,as marked by earthquakes.Since 1555AD,two active periods and two quiet periods have been recognized and now is in the second active period since 1920.The second active period in the past 100 years can be divide to five active stages and five quiet stagese,each lasting for 9 ～ 16 years,and now is in the last active stage since 2002.Study of major earthquake cycle indicates that the major earthquakes(MS = 7.0 ～ 7.5) happen at the interval of 2000 ～ 3000 years in the study area.According to the state of every active fault in the recent earthquake,it can be predicted that in the coming 100 years the MS > 7.0 earthquakes most likely appear in San’gedun-Songshan area of Changma active fault zone,Yuemen area in west part of the Northern Qilianshan fault zone,the Ciyaokou-Kushuigou area in the middle part of Northern Qilianshan fault zone and Jiayuguan area of the Jiayuguan active fault,and likely in Shibaocheng-Changmadaba area in eastern part of Altyu tagh active fault and Gaotai area of Gaotaichezhan active fault.The authors suggest that more attention should be paid to active fault and major earthquake cycle in the study related to earthquake movement.更多还原