【摘要】 地质模型是进行油田开发指标预测的基础,油田开发初期,钻井资料少,用单一地质模型进行预测会带来很大的风险。采用不确定性评价方法,考虑地质建模参数的风险范围,综合正交试验设计和随机建模方法,建立多种方案的地质模型。运用响应曲面拟合和蒙特卡洛模拟等数理统计方法,通过概率计算对地质模型进行优选,选取反映油藏风险潜力的高中低模型。以优选的3个地质模型为基础,开展相同条件下的油藏数值模拟获得开发指标范围,从而实现油藏风险潜力评价。研究结果表明,该方法在资料较少、不确定性较大的油田开发初期,能够提供油田储量和开发指标的分布范围,对油田开发投资决策和科学管理具有重要意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Geological models are the basis for the prediction of oilfield development indicators. In the early stage of oilfield development, the prediction of using a single geological model would bring great risks due to few available drilling data. The geological model of various schemes is established by using the uncertainty evaluation method which considers the risk range of geological modeling parameters and applies orthogonal test design and stochastic modeling method. By using the method of response surface fitting and Monte Carlo simulation, the geological model is optimized by probability calculation, and the high and low models reflecting the reservoir risk potential are selected. Based on the three selected geological models, the reservoir numerical simulation under the same conditions is developed to achieve the range of development target, so as to realize the evaluation of reservoir risk potential. Research results show that the method can provide the range of oilfield reserves and development indicators when the data are fewerless and uncertainty is the larger in the early stage of field development. This method thus can help provide valuable information for the oil field development investment decision and scientific management.更多还原