【摘要】 黄河小浪底水库库区地质构造复杂 ,库区及周边存在着十几条活动断层 ,它们是可能诱震断层。本文首先对库区断裂分布规律、相互关系进行分析 ,并探讨其断裂活动性 ,然后在综合地质条件分析、地震地质与工程地质类比的基础上 ,应用概率预测法分析得知小浪底水库有诱发地震的可能 ,并采用水库综合影响参数法、断层破裂长度法、聚类分析法估算了水库诱发地震震级 ,结果表明其震级以 5级为上限 ,随后简单估计了其震中位置与时间。更多还原

【Abstract】 In Xiaolangdi reservoir area,the geological structure is complicated and there are more than ten active faults.They are faults possibly inducing earthquake.The authors analyse the distribution rule of the faults and relationship between them,discus their stability and effects on reservoir induced earthquake.On the base of comprehensive geology conditions analyzing and analogizing of seismic geology and engineering geology,the possibility of induced earthquake is researched with probability prediction method and finally the upper limit of the seismic magnitude,the position of seismic center and time are predicted.更多还原