【摘要】 选取青藏高原北部的西宁及周边区域(34°—40°N,96°—104°E),以1°为步长,3°×3°作为窗口,进行空间扫描得出24个研究窗口,采用MAPSIS软件,进行各项地震学参数的计算,将计算结果与窗口中心点周边300 km以内的中强地震进行对照,发现9项地震活动性参数与周边Ms≥5.5地震有明显对应关系,且在2008年汶川8.0级和2010年玉树7.1级地震前大多有明显的异常反映。同时,时间差与震中距之间,有近似线性的拟合关系,而与震级之间的线性拟合关系较差。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,the area surrounding Xining(34°—40°N,96°—104°E) which located in the northern Tibetan Plateau is selected for study.We obtained 24 study windows by scanning the area space with the step by 1° and the window by 3°×3° respectively.We calculated the seismological parameters by MAPSIS software,and then made a comparative study between the calculation and the strong earthquakes within 300 km of the windows.We found that there was obvious correspondence between the nine seismic activity parameters changes of35°—38°N,100°—103°E window and the earthquakes M_s≥5.5 less than 300 km,and the same abnormal changes were appeared before 2008 Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake and 2010Yushu 7.1 earthquake.At the same time,we found that there was a near linear fitting relationship between the time difference which was from earthquake origin time to abnormal changes and epicentral distance,on this basis,a semi-quantitative prediction index was put forward.更多还原