【摘要】 通过对1980年以来至今14个指标的全时间扫描,并使用祁连山西段地区M_S 5.0地震进行对应。结果表明,选取A值、AC值、A(b)值、b值、Mf值和地震活动度S值进行同步异常分析,能显著提高祁连山西段地区的有震报震率,但有漏报。对目前地区异常集中区进行时间扫描,结果显示,祁连山西段地区出现同步异常,认为2012年或稍长时期有发生M_S≥5.0中强震的可能。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,using full time scanning method,14 seismic indicatos since 1980 are calculated and the correspondence analysis with the earthquake of M_S 5.0 in western region of Qilian Mountains is carried out.The results show that with the selected of A value,AC value, A(b) value,b value,Mf values and S values,the seismic activity analysis of synchronous exception can significantly improve the report rate of earthquakes in the western region of Qilian Mountains,but there are omissions.The time scanning on currently anomaly gathering region shows that a synchronous anomaly occurs at wertern region of Qilian Mountains.It suggest that a moderate-strong earthquake of M_S≥5.0 may occur there in 2012 or more longer time period.更多还原