节点文献
门限自回归建模在东北地区未来地震趋势研究中的应用
Application of threshold autoregressive model to future trends of earthquake in Northeast China
【摘要】 叙述门限自回归模型建模的基本原理及步骤,利用东北地区年最大震级序列数据建立门限自回归模型SETAR(2,4,3),并依此对东北地区未来可能发生的最大地震进行预测。结果表明,该模型预测精度较高,其研究结论对东北地区未来地震活动趋势预测具有参考意义。
【Abstract】 In this paper,we depict the basis theory of threshold autoregressive model and establish the self-exciting threshold autoregressive model SETAR(2,4,3)for the time series of the maximal earthquake magnitude occurring in Northeast China.The results show that the model prediction accuracy is higher.It is significant for the investigation of the earthquake activity trend prediction in Northeast China in the future.
【关键词】 门限自回归;
SETAR模型;
地震预测;
东北地区;
【Key words】 threshold autoregressive; SETAR model; earthquake prediction; Northeast China;
【Key words】 threshold autoregressive; SETAR model; earthquake prediction; Northeast China;
- 【文献出处】 地震地磁观测与研究 ,Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research , 编辑部邮箱 ,2011年05期
- 【分类号】P315
- 【下载频次】7