【摘要】 利用华东地区1970年以来的地震目录,对华东地区、郯庐断裂带100km范围、2007年度划定为地震危险区的苏鲁皖交界地区及安徽地区,以地震活动性参数群体异常变化项目数为参量,进行相应的均值之差与标准差统计分析,提取其变化率R(李永莉等,2003),即通过统计计算地震活动性参数异常项目月变化率R值,观察R值变化特征。结果发现,华东地区、安徽地区中强震前R值异常表现为中短期异常特征,郯庐断裂带100km范围内及本年度划定为危险区的苏鲁皖交界地区,R值异常表现为中长期异常特征。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using the earthquake catalogue of East China since 1970,we analyze the mean value and standard deviation of the anomaly item numbers of the seismic parameters to get the R value to count monthly variety ratio of anomaly items of seismic parameters.We found that,the R value shows mid-long term anomaly before medium-strong earthquake in East China and Anhui area,but mid-long term anomaly in the 100 kilometers area around the Tanlu fault and the joint area of Jiangsu,Shandong,Anhui Provinces which was delimited as earthquake danger zone this year.更多还原