【摘要】 以重庆市活断层探测资料为基础,通过对该工作区的地震构造、地震活动性、构造应力场与形变场的分析,综合判定出目标区未来可能发生地震的最大震级为5.5≤M S≤6.0。尝试将地震空间光滑模型应用到弱活动区城市活断层地震危险性评价中,充分利用历史强震和微震目录,分别建立了2种地震空间光滑模型,并采用泊松模型,对目标区未来百年的地震危险性(发震概率)进行了定量分析。结果表明:单条断裂发震概率值较低,未来发生5.5级以上破坏性地震的可能性较小。更多还原

【Abstract】 The maximum magnitude of probable future earthquake in the target area is forecasted in this paper by synthetical analysis of tectonic structure,seismicity,stress and strain fields,based on data of the Chongqing urban active faults surveying.The maximum magnitude of probable future earthquake in the target area is 5.5≤MS≤6.0.We try to use the spatially smoothed seismicity method in weakly active area.Two seismic hazard models in weakly active area based on spatially smoothed seismicity method are proposed using strong seismic catalog and small seismic catalog.The completeness of these two catalogs is analyzed based on EMR(Entire Magnitude Range) method.And the seismic hazard(probability) in the target area is calculated using Poisson model.The results show that the seismic probability value for a single fault is relatively low and the possibility of destructive earthquake of magnitude above 5.5 in the target area is small.There are still some uncertainty and reliability for the results because of the hypnosis of the spatially smoothed seismicity model.However it should be noticed that the technique of seismic hazard calculation described in this paper based on spatially smoothed seismicity method is a new try and has potential application for the weakly active area such as Chongqing.更多还原