【摘要】 运用生产函数模型及岭回归分析测度2002—2016年中国内地及其东部、中部、西部和东北地区农业生产投入要素对农业增长的贡献率,为合理配置生产要素从而推进农业供给侧结构性改革、加快农业现代化发展提供依据。结果表明:从长期看,农业增长对耕地数量变化的敏感度最高,对劳动力依赖性最小,资本投入在农业生产三大要素中的贡献率最为稳定且相对较高;从短期看,资本对耕地要素具有替代性,其中东部、中部和西部的劳动力要素对农业增长贡献率最高,资本要素次之,而东北地区资本要素贡献率最高。我国农业发展已进入资本驱动的关键阶段,增加农业投资是保障农业增长的重要手段,耕地投入量的减少对农业增长有负向作用,应注重耕地提质增量。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using production function model and ridge regression analysis method to measure the contribution rate of input factors of agricultural production to agricultural growth in the Mainland of China and its eastern,central,western and northeastern regions from 2002 to 2016,which provides a basis for solving the problem of improper allocation of production factors,promoting structural reform of agricultural supply side and accelerating the development of agricultural modernization. The results show that in the long run,agricultural growth has the highest sensitivity to the change of cultivated land quantity,the smallest dependence on labor force and the most stable and relatively high contribution rate of capital input to the three major factors of agricultural production; in the short run,capital has the substitution to cultivated land factors,among which the labor factors in the east,central and western regions have the highest contribution rate to agricultural growth and the capital factors are the second. The contribution rate of capital elements in Northeast China is the highest. Agricultural development in China has entered a key stage of capital-driven. Increasing agricultural investment is an important means to ensure agricultural growth,and the reduction of arable land input will have a negative effect on agricultural growth. In the future,should pay attention to the increase of arable land quality.更多还原