【摘要】 耕地生态安全评价中传统评价方法无法兼顾评价指标和评价结果存在模糊性和随机性,为了弥补此缺陷,将人工智能的正态云模型引入耕地生态安全评价中。借助正态云模型、熵值赋权法、实证研究法,基于Matlab 7. 1软件平台,构建吉林省耕地生态安全诊断PSR-EES框架体系,对2000—2016年吉林省耕地生态安全状况进行综合诊断。结果表明:(1)研究期内,吉林省耕地生态安全状况经历了"临界安全—较安全—临界安全—安全"的演化过程,整体呈趋好态势;(2)单一指标演化发展中,状态层和响应层多数指标优化趋势明显,压力层指标恶化较快。正态云模型实现了评价指标向耕地生态安全等级的不确定性映射,兼顾了评价指标和评价结果存在的随机性和模糊性,使评价结果更具客观性,适用于耕地生态安全评价。更多还原

【Abstract】 The aim of this study is to make up for the defects that the traditional evaluation method can not balance the evaluation index and the fuzzy and randomness of the evaluation results,and introduce the normal cloud model of artificial intelligence into the ecological security evaluation of cultivated land. Research methods of normal cloud model,entropy weighting method,empirical research method are used in this paper. Based on the Matlab7. 1 software platform,the PSR-EES framework system for the ecological security diagnosis of cultivated land in Jilin Province was constructed. The normal cloud model was used to comprehensively diagnose the ecological security status of cultivated land in Jilin Province from 2000 to 2016. The results showed that:( 1) During the research period,the ecological security status of cultivated land in Jilin Province experienced the evolution process of "critical safety-safety-critical safety-safety",and the overall situation showed a good trend;( 2) As for the evolution of single index,most of the indicators in the state layer and response layer have obvious optimization trends,while the pressure layer indicators deteriorate rapidly. The normal cloud model realizes the uncertainty mapping of the evaluation index to the ecological security level of cultivated land,taking into account the evaluation index and evaluation results. The randomness and ambiguity of existence make the evaluation results more objective and applicable to the evaluation of cultivated land ecological security. The conclusions of the study has revealed the evolution mechanism of cultivated land ecological security in Jilin Province and has proposed optimization strategies.更多还原