【摘要】 土壤水的准确预测对区域旱情评估及水量分析计算十分重要。传统模式大都基于土壤水观测数据构建线性回归方程进行预测。本次研究结合一种新的双参数冻融模型,以新疆喀什为研究区域,综合考虑土壤物理特性和参数的非线性,对区域内的土壤水进行非线性预测,结果显示:喀什地区的土壤水预测结果和实测土壤水数据相比,新模型预测计算误差在6%～10%之间,明显优于传统自动监测仪器的误差值,预测精度大大提高,具有重要的参考和实用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Accurate prediction of soil water is important for regional drought assessment and water volume analysis.Traditional modeare mostly based on soil water observation data to construct linear regression equations for prediction. Combined with a new two-parameter freeze-thaw model, Xinjiang Kashgar is used as the research area, and the soil physical properties and nonlinearly parameters are considered. The soil water in the region is predicted nonlinearly. The results show that the prediction results of soil water in the Kashgar area are compared with the water data in the measured soil, the new model predicts the calculation error between 6% to 10%, which is obviously superior to the error value of the traditional automatic monitoring instrument, and the prediction accuracy is greatly improved, which has important reference and practical value.更多还原