【摘要】 俄罗斯科学院西伯利亚分院克拉斯诺亚尔斯克科学中心特殊技术设计局Sibgatulin于2013年5月7日11时55分,将天然电磁脉冲异常信息及分析意见通报给文章第一作者曾佐勋,指出在武汉的东、西两个方向上,具有发生MS6级左右地震的可能性。2013年5月7日22时20分,山东平原县职业中专宋松将其与宋科夫根据震兆日晕结合"七式、六形还原测震法"做出的地震预测意见通报了曾佐勋。意见中指出,2013年5月7—20日左右(甚至会在7天内),在新疆、青海、与西藏交界附近,将发生MS5.5~6.2的地震。在Sibgatulin和宋松等人的预测基础上,利用卫星热红外排气点观测法,曾佐勋于2013年5月8日0时54分,向宋松、王杰、潘黎黎发出预测意见。预测10日内有可能在西藏的排气点(31.5°N,89.0°E)发生MS6.0级左右地震,并于5月8日8时34分,向3人补充了另一排气点(31°N,86°E)的观测情况。2013年5月15日18:54:30,西藏那曲尼玛县(31.6°N,86.5°E)发生MS5.2级中强震,震源深度为10km。此次地震的发震时间落入宋松和曾佐勋的预测窗口;震中落入曾佐勋根据第二个排气点给出的预测范围;震级基本上落入Sibgatulin、宋松、宋科夫以及曾佐勋的预测范围。尼玛地震临震预测成功的意义在于这是一次两国三方合作的范例,也进一步验证了"地震预测需要多方法的综合分析"的认识。对该地区地壳结构剖面和活动断裂研究表明,此次地震的发震断层为来多—措迈北北西向右行走滑正断层;地震能量的积聚和存储与中地壳高导低速层关系密切;西藏地区断层活动受南北向挤压、东西向拉伸的现今构造应力场控制。更多还原

【Abstract】 At 11:55of May 7,2013,Victor G.Sibgatulin in the Special Engineering Design Bureau,Krasnoyarsk Scientific Center,Siberian Department of Russian Academy of Science,informed Zeng Zuoxun,the first author of the paper,that the natural electromagnetic pulse anomalies indicated that there would be an earthquake of magnitude about MS6in the west or east direction of the Wuhan City of China.At 22:20of May 7,2013,Song Song in the Professional Secondary School of Pingyuan County,Dezhou,Shandong,China,informed Zeng Zuoxun about an earthquake prediction cooperated with Song Kefu,based on his observation of a precursory halo lasted for 10minutes beginning from 11o’clock of May 7,2013.They predicted that an earthquake with magnitude ranging from MS5.5to 6.2would occur in 7days in the adjoining area of Tibet,Xinjiang and Qinghai of West China.On the basis of the comprehensive analysis of the prediction of Victor Sibgatulin and the prediction of Song Song and Song Kefu,and an observation for the locations of a degasification of the earth in the Naqu,Tibet by Zeng Zuoxun himself,the first author made a prediction for an earthquake around MS6in 10days in the area of the degasification point(31.5°N,89.0°E)and E-mailed the prediction to Song Song,Wang Jie and Pan Lili at 0:54of May 8,2013.He offered another degasification point(31°N,86°E)for the epicenter prediction at 8:34of the same day.At 18:54:30of May 15,2013,an earthquake of MS5.2occurred in the Nima County,Naqu,China.The epicenter is located at 31.6°N,86.5°E.The focus is at the depth of 10km.The occurring time of the Nima earthquake fell into the time window of the prediction made byZeng Zuoxun and by Song Song and Song Kefu.The epicenter of the Nima earthquake fell into the area around the second degasification point.The Nima earthquake fell basically into the predicted magnitude by Victor Sibgatulin,by Song Song and Song Kefu and by Zuoxun Zeng.The significance of the successful imminent prediction of the Nima earthquake is that it is a successful case of the cooperation between two countries and among three institutions.It further proves that the successful prediction needs comprehensive analysis with multiple-method information.It is indicated by the section of the crust in the area around the epicenter and by the research of the active faults in the area that the NNW-trending Laiduo-Cuomai fault is the triggering fault of the Nima earthquake,that the concentration and storage of the earthquake energy was closely related to the high conductivelow velocity layer in the mid-crust and that the current stress field controlling the fault activities in the Tibet area is of characteristics of compression in SN direction and extension in EW direction.更多还原