【摘要】 华北地壳热活动强烈,重大自然灾害频发。华北自然灾害具有区域性、群发性、连发性、关联性特征,组成热灾害链。华北热灾害链的典型结构是跨年度干旱—异常路径台风—异常降雨—异常海冰—强震—异常降雨,受控于源于渤海和青藏高原的下地壳不均匀流动形成的"热河"及其热能有规律地积累与释放,渤海放射状下地壳热流系统与地幔软流圈底辟作用有关。当前华北热灾害链已经有序演变到地震阶段,近5年内在韧性下地壳中6条"热河"的6个撞击区可能发生多个强震,流经辽东湾向北东方向流动的下地壳"热河"撞击区、临汾—太原—大同下地壳"热河"与流经渤海湾—通县—沙河下地壳"热河"的夹击区危险性最大,应当尽快系统监测与热流体有关的地震前兆异常,科学开展地震短临预测。查明华北韧性下地壳中"热河"的三维动态演变,系统梯级开发各条"热河"的热能资源,对于发展经济、减灾减排都具有十分重大的意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 North China shows strong crustal thermal activities and frequent serious natural disasters.Natural disasters in North China formed thermal disaster chains characterized by regionality,group activation,continued occurrence,and correlation.The typical structure of North China thermal disaster chains is that the over year drought-abnormal path typhoon-strong rainfall-abnormal sea ice-strong earthquake-abnormal rainfall,which was controlled by"thermal rivers"formed by uneven flowing and the regular accumulation and release of thermal energy in the weakened lower crust derived from Bohai Sea and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The radial flow system of lower crust from the Bohai Sea is correlated with the mantle asthenosphere diapirism.The ongoing thermal disaster chains in North China has orderly developed into earthquake stage,and several strong earthquakes will occur on the 6impacting areas of 6"thermal rivers"in the ductile lower crust during recent five years,and the most dangerous areas are the impacting areas of the lower crustal"thermal river"flowing toward NE direction through the Liaodong Bay and the converging area between the Linfen-Taiyuan-Datong lower crustal"thermal river"and the lower crustal"thermal river"flowing through the Bohai Bay-Tongxian-Shahe.The earthquake precursors related to thermal fluid activity should be systematically monitored for short-term and impending earthquake prediction.It is of great significance to find out the"thermal rivers"in North China ductile lower crust and to systematically develop geothermal energy of the"thermal rivers"for economic development and for reducing disaster and emission.更多还原