【摘要】 牛眠沟研究区位于2008-05-12汶川大地震线性震源的南端,受强烈地震力作用,区内山体遭受严重破坏,发生多处滑坡和泥石流灾害。根据已建立的暴雨滑坡、泥石流预测概念模型,暴雨滑坡、泥石流预测可视为判断滑坡形成的地质环境和确定触发滑坡的降雨特征。查明研究区地质环境及灾害特征,确定了产生滑坡、泥石流的必要地质环境因子,以数字滑坡技术获取这些因子数据,代入模型,即可评价研究区各处、各沟谷发生滑坡、泥石流的危险程度;与相似地质环境及气候条件进行类比,确定研究区触发滑坡、泥石流的降雨特征及降雨量阈值后,最终建立暴雨滑坡、泥石流预测模型。据此模型进行研究区暴雨滑坡、泥石流预测,实地验证表明滑坡、泥石流发生位置的准确率>90%。更多还原

【Abstract】 Niumian Gully,the study area located at southern part of linearity focus region of 5.12Earthquake.Suffered from intensely seismic forces,mountain ground was seriously damaged and numerous landslides and debris flows occurred.Based on the established conceptual model of rainstorm induced landslide,debris flow and the mathematical expressions of riskiness’assessment of landslides and debris flows that introduced by author’s previous paper,the necessary geological factors and their specific elements used in the model was determined by considering the characteristics of geological environment and disaster of study area.And by using digital landslide technique these data of each specific element was obtained.Then after defined the rainfall threshold level by analyzing with similar geological environment and climate conditions,the model of forecast rainstorm induce landslide and debris flow is completed at last.According to the model the hazard level for landslide and debris flow occurring in each place of the study area will be forecast.更多还原