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基于地震区划的电力系统元件损坏概率分析

Components Damage Probability Analysis of Power System Based on Seismic Zonation

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【作者】 贺海磊郭剑波

【Author】 HE Hailei,GUO Jianbo(China Electric Power Research Institute,Haidian District,Beijing 100192,China)

【机构】 中国电力科学研究院

【摘要】 电力系统元件的实际地震损坏概率是分析电气设备的抗震性能和进行网络抗震风险分析的基础。在地震区划的基础上,结合电气设备易损性曲线,引入结构震害指数的概念,建立了电力系统中变电站主要元件及架空线路在地震情况下的损坏概率分析模型。最后,采用该方法对成都电网的变电站元件及架空线路损坏概率进行计算,并与实际结果进行对比,验证了该方法的有效性。

【Abstract】 actual components damage probability of power system in the earthquake is the foundation for seismic situation of electrical equipment and network seismic risk analysis.This article analyzes the characteristics of earthquake disasters,and points out that using seismic zoning is reasonable method for assessing area’s intensity.Main components of substation and overhead lines in earthquake cases of failure probability analysis model based on seismic zoning are established combining with electrical equipment fragility curve.Finally,failure probability of substation components and overhead lines in Chengdu power grid is calculated with this method proposed.The results are still compared with the actual data which show that the method is effective.

  • 【文献出处】 电网技术 ,Power System Technology , 编辑部邮箱 ,2011年12期
  • 【分类号】TM711
  • 【被引频次】1
  • 【下载频次】143
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