【摘要】 大地震和特大暴雨等特大自然灾害具有很强的突发性和破坏性。地震的临震预报和特大暴雨的预报依然是世界性难题。近 2 0～ 30年来国内外科学家明显加强了多学科的交叉 ,从多角度探讨特大自然灾害发生机制及预测的理论和方法 ,并取得了初步的进展。本文集中讨论了这些方法及其综合集成分析。研究表明 ,这些新方法对特大自然灾害预测预报提供了新的思路 ,但绝大多数新方法仍处于萌芽的探索阶段 ,其预测预报的机理和综合使用的途径和前景尚有待进一步研究 ,使这些方法成为成熟的预测预报方法并努力使其成为成熟的业务预报系统中的组成部分。更多还原

【Abstract】 The extraordinarily serious natural disaster, such as great earthquake and catastrophic heavy rainstorm, are characteristiced by their unexpected occurrence and destructive results The forecasting of earthquake and heavy rainstorm is still a difficult problem in the world In the last two and three decades initial progress had been made due to the multi disciplinary research and the research on mechanics about earthquake and rainstorm and the theory and method for forecasting extraordinarily serious natural disaster from different aspects In thispaper some new observation and forecasting method were discussed or analyzed synthetically The results indicate that the new methods, though most of these methods were in their initial research phase, had suggested new direction for forecasting the extraordinarily serious natural disaster The mechanics of forecasting the earthquake and heavy rainstorm and the integrative application of these methods are discussed and studied deeply As a result, some of these methods will become mature forecasting method and then become the necessary components of the operational routine system of forecasting the extraordinarily serious natural disaster更多还原