【摘要】 基于作者提出的孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论及板间地震区划分原则,划分了伊斯兰堡—加德满都地震区.从孕育周期界定与主震事件判识角度,分析了该地震区大(巨)震事件的孕育过程,研判了其未来震情.结果表明:伊斯兰堡—加德满都地震区至少已经历三个完整的孕育周期,是一个Mw8.3~8.6地震危险区;2015年4月25日尼泊尔Mw7.8地震,是该区当前孕育周期第三锁固段损伤累积至峰值强度点时发生的一次标志性大震事件;2015年5月12日尼泊尔Mw7.3地震发生后,该地震区再次处于临界状态,将发生Mw8.0~8.2地震.更多还原

【Abstract】 In this study,we divided the Islamabad—Kathmandu seismic zone based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and principles for dividing interplate seismogenic zones.Furthermore,we analyzed the seismogenic process of the large or great earthquake events in the zone from the angles of the definition of seismogenic period and the recognition of the main shock event,and forecasted the future earthquake situation.The results showed that the Islamabad—Kathmandu seismic zone has undergone at least three complete seismogenic periods and it is a dangerous seismic zone with Mw8.3~8.6earthquake.The Nepal Mw7.8earthquake on 25 April 2015is a symbolic major earthquake event by the time the damage of the third locked patch is accumulated to the peak stress in the current seismogenic period.After the Mw7.3earthquake on 12 May 2015,it has been at the critical state again for this seismic zone and a Mw8.0~8.2earthquake will occur.更多还原