【摘要】 通过建立孕震断层中锁固段的临界破坏—断裂力学与其蠕变过程联系,发现每个锁固段断裂点与加速应变能释放起点的累积Benioff应变之比,有着依赖于锁固段个数的指数律关系,指数函数的底数为1.48.在最后一个锁固段破坏以前,每一个锁固段的临界破坏断裂过程表示一个中等强度或更大震级预震(preshock)的产生过程;在最后一个锁固段破坏之后,主震将发生.通过相当数量地震实例的回溯性预测分析,表明这一指数律能可靠地应用于中等强度预震和主震的预测.该方法能够在地震的中期、短期以及临震预报方面发挥作用.常数1.48很可能是表征中等强度或更大震级的预震和主震产生过程的普适常数.我们还对地震预报研究中某些有争议的问题进行了讨论,从理论和技术层面论证了本方法的适用性.更多还原

【Abstract】 An important effort is carried out worldwide in the hope that, maybe sometime in the future, the grail of useful earthquake prediction will be attained.The seismological community has been criticized in the past for promising results by using various prediction techniques (e.g., anomalous seismic wave propagations, dilatancy diffusion, Mogi donuts, pattern recognition algorithms, etc.) that have not delivered to the expected level.The need for a reassessment of the physical processes has been recognized and more fundamental studies are pursued on crustal structures in seismogenic zones, historical earthquakes, active faults, laboratory fracture experiments, earthquake source processes, etc.There is even now an opinion that earthquakes could be inherently unpredictable.The argument is that past failures and recent theories suggest fundamental obstacles to prediction.It is true that useful predictions are not available at present and seem hard to get in the near future, but would it not be a little presumptuous to claim that prediction is impossible? Many past examples in the development of science have taught us that unexpected discoveries can modify completely what was previously considered possible or not. Here, we demonstrate that an exponential law for earthquake predictions has been discovered and this law has wide applicability for the predictions of catastrophe including earthquakes, landslides and avalanches.更多还原