【摘要】 本文对中国自动地震速报系统做了整体评估,并以此为基础确定了发布策略.通过对3套自动地震速报系统的综合评估,确定了自动速报信息对外发布"宁漏不误"原则和"多路综合触发"机制;通过基于"多路综合触发"机制的数据模拟评估,验证了该原则在对外发布时的可靠性.在不漏报国内有影响大震的前提下,舍弃监测能力薄弱地区的部分小震是可以接受的;遵循"统一发布、宁弃不误、内外有别"的原则,根据监测能力实行按区分类发布并以人工后干预机制为保障,自动地震速报结果在一定程度上面向社会服务是可行的.通过四川省芦山"4.20"7.0级强烈地震及其余震对全国自动地震速报系统的检验,表明目前的自动速报系统及其发布机制对于大震震级的确定还需完善,对于地震密集时的余震处理能力还有待提高,这些都是未来应解决的关键问题.更多还原

【Abstract】 This article mainly evaluated China’s auto earthquake information release system and confirmed public release strategy based on this evaluation.By overall evaluating the 3 sets of automatic earthquake locating systems,we determine the "rather miss not mistake"principle and the"multi-channel integrated trigger"mechanism which used in auto earthquake information public release;Through data simulation evaluating based on "multi-channel integrated trigger"mechanism,we confirm the reliability of principle used in public release.It’s acceptable that ensure not miss domestic influential big earthquakes and abandon small earthquakes which in weak monitoring regions;It’s is feasible for social services to some extent following the principles "unified release,rather miss not mistake and different from inside and outside",respectively release according to the monitoring capacity and updated by manual information release.Examining by Sichuan province Lushan "4.20"7.0 magnitude big earthquake and its aftershocks,we can draw the conclusion that present China’s auto earthquake information release system and its release mechanisms for confirm the magnitude of big earthquakes still need to improve,the processing capacity of aftershocks needs to improve,these are the key problems to be solved in the future.更多还原