【摘要】 基于作者提出的孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法,划定了朱诺-温哥华-旧金山-墨西哥城地震区,分析了其历史巨震孕育过程和未来震情.研究表明:1964年阿拉斯加MW9.2级地震并非该地震区当前孕育周期的主震事件,未来该区将发生MW9.2~9.6级地震.预计向临界状态演化过程中,该地震区还将发生不超过MW8.8级的preshock事件.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and associated prediction method developed by us,the Juneau-Vancouver-San FranciscoMexico City seismic zone is divided and the seismogenic process of great earthquakes and the future earthquake situation are also analyzed.The study indicated that the Alaska MW 9.2earthquake in 1964 is not the main shock event in the current seismogenic period and a great earthquake of MW9.2~9.6will occur in the future with some preshock events whose magnitude is less than or equal to MW8.8.更多还原