【摘要】 运用孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法,对川滇地区某些地震区未来震情进行了重新研判和分析,并给出了这些地震区未来中强震或强震的四要素预测结果.结果表明:若1973年炉霍大震不是MS7.9级,则鲜水河地震区未来有MS7.9～8.1级的地震发生;其它地震区,包括小江、西昌、云龙、宜宾-长宁以及自贡-遂宁地震区,未来都将有破坏性地震发生.更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system developed by us,the earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions is reanalyzed in the present paper.Meanwhile,the prediction results,including the magnitude,place,critical strain,and hypocentral depth of the moderate-strong or strong earthquake,are also presented.The results suggest that the destructive earthquake will occur in some seismic zones,such as Xiaojiang,Xichang,Yunlong,Yibin-Changning and Zigong-Suining seismic zones.However,for the future earthquake situation in Xianshuihe seismic zone,there exists uncertainty due to the magnitude error of the Luhuo earthquake occurred in 1973.Only when the actual magnitude of the Luhuo earthquake is less than MS 7.9 from the China Earthquake Data Center,an earthquake of MS 7.9~8.1 will occur in Xianshuihe seismic zone.更多还原