【摘要】 汶川8.0级地震以后,龙门山地区的地震活动趋势是人们普遍关心的问题.作者根据龙门山断裂带东北段的地质构造特征和15个钻孔的水压致裂地应力测试数据,分析研究区的地应力状态与断裂活动关系,探讨沿龙门山断裂带东北段发生强余震的可能性.研究表明,龙门山断裂带东北段地应力状态有利于逆断层和走滑断层活动.不同断裂也表现出和地应力状态一致的活动特征.区内断裂处于长期的应力积累状态,长期的应变能量积累导致了汶川强震的发生.汶川地震和多次余震释放的能量向龙门山断裂带东北段迁移、积累.因此,不排除本区发生较强余震的可能性.更多还原

【Abstract】 After Wenchuan MS 8.0 earthquake,the problem people concerned is seismic active trend in Longmenshan area.Based on structure characteristics and some data of hydraulic fracturing stress measurement of more than 15 boreholes,authors analyze the relationship of stress state and fault activity,to study the risk of another strong earthquake or strong aftershocks in the northeast segment of Longmenshan fault zone.The results show that the stress state is helpful to thrust fault and strike-slip fault movement in study area.The activity of different faults is quite uniform with stress state.The stress and strain energy is accumulating although the faults activity of study area are in atresic state in the northeast segment of Longmenshan fault zone.The long-term energy accumulation caused Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake.The energy of Wenchuan earthquake and its aftershocks transfer and accumulate towards the northeast segment of Longmenshan fault zone.The result is that the risk of strong earthquake is still high in the northeast segment of Longmenshan fault zone.更多还原