【摘要】 根据GPS观测结果,对全球板块运动特征进行了描述,并分析了其对中国大陆构造及深大断裂形成所产生的影响,指出以南北带为界,西部多以北西向和近东西向断裂为主,东部以南北向和北东向断裂为主,形成这一格局主要是印度板块和北美板块相对欧亚大陆板块长期运动的结果.继而通过张、压、剪切等不同的变形特征讨论了板块运动、断层构造与强震孕育发生之间的关系,结合华北1999-2009年期间多期GPS给出的区域无旋转基准下的水平形变场,从孕震机理上分析了强震孕育的可能性,并分析了5.12汶川地震和3.11日本地震可能对华北产生的影响,认为对华北应该进一步加强研究,对山西断陷带中南部应该给予特别关注.更多还原

【Abstract】 Since 21st century,a period of high incidence of strong earthquake is coming globally.On China Continent,strong earthquakes such as Kunlunshan MS 8.1,Wenchuan MS 8.0 and Yushu MS 7.1 etc.have also occurred in succession.From analysis of migration of history earthquakes in China Continent,North China is concerned as key area.March 11,2011,massive earthquake with magnitude 9.0 occurred in Japan.Thus we should pay more attention to North China for seismic situation.Based on GPS monitoring results,the world wide plate motions are described in this paper,and their impacts on the formation of geotectonic structure and large-deep faults in China continent are analyzed.Treating the North-south belt as a boundary,faults are mainly with the strike of northwest-southeast or nearly west-east in the west part of China,and mainly with the fault strike of north-south or northeast-southwest in the east part.This is mainly resulted by the long term motion of India plate and North American plate relative to Eurasia plate.By the different deformation features of expansion,stress and shearing,the relation between plate motion,fault formation and strong earthquake generation are discussed.With horizontal deformation field of North-China under the regional no-rotation fiducial frame given by multi-terms of GPS monitoring data,the possibility of strong earthquake generation is analyzed.Simultaneously,the impact of Wenchuan MS 8.0 earthquake on May 12,2008 and Japan MS 9.0 earthquake on March 11,2011 is analyzed.Wenchuan earthquake has strengthened crust motion in north-east direction in the west part of North China;The Japan earthquake prompt pacific plate underthrust eurasian plate further,overlapping the long term effect of North American plate,the tendency of the east part of North China moving to south would be strengthened further.This would accumulate more clockwise shearing strain energy in a series of fault belts distributed nearly the direction of southwest to northeast in North China.Thus the probability of strong earthquake preparation would be increased.The middle and south parts of Shanxi fault subsidence zone would be more risky areas by integrated analysis.更多还原