【摘要】 锁固体变形到膨胀点时,震群事件开始发生,在震群事件中常出现一个或两个震级显著较大的地震,即标志性地震事件.基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与孕震时空区域划分原则,以中国及其边境地区历史强震震例为源数据,得到锁固体破裂标志性地震震级Msc与峰值强度点地震震级Msf之间的统计关系为:Msf≈Msc+0.5.这为依据Msc预测Msf提供了一个简便方法.更多还原

【Abstract】 Earthquake swarm events will initially occur when the deformation of locked patch in a fault arrives at the dilatant point.One or two obviously larger earthquakes among these events refer to the symbolic earthquake event.Based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches along a seismogenic fault system and division principle of seismogenic time and space region developed by us,a statistical relation between the symbolic earthquake magnitude Msc and the earthquake magnitude Msf at the peak strength of locked patch is determined from the original source data of historical strong earthquake cases in China and its border zone,i.e.Msf≈Msc+0.5.This provides a simple and convenient approach of applying Msc to predict Msf.更多还原