【摘要】 基于作者提出的孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法,作者曾在2010年11月就发表文章对昭通孕震区震情进行了分析,并给出了该区域未来强震的震级、震中经纬度、震源深度以及Benioff应变临界触发值.通过与此次2012年9月7号云南昭通发生的MS5.7、5.6级双震进行比较,认为这次双震发生的实际Benioff应变临界触发值与预测值非常接近,表明该理论方法能够可靠地应用于中等强度预震和主震的预测.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and associated prediction method developed by us,the prediction results,including the magnitude,place,critical strain,and hypocentral depth of the oncoming strong earthquake for ZhaoTong seismic zone have been obtained and published in advance in November 2010.In comparison with the ZhaoTong double earthquakes MS 5.7|and 5.6 in Yunnan occurred on September 7,2012,it is shown that the actual cumulative Benioff strain is consistent to prediction value.Thus,we think this new method has wide applicability for the strong earthquake.更多还原