【摘要】 西太平洋板块俯冲引发的强震与我国东北地区强震活动存在密切联系,对西太平洋板块俯冲带未来强震做出准确的趋势判断,对我国防御重大地震灾害具有重大意义.通过可公度信息提取方法对1900年来西太平洋俯冲带北部地区MS≥8强震进行分析,认为西太平洋俯冲带北部地区在2013年、2014年和2017年强震信号较强,有可能发生较大震级地震.其中2014年信号要强于2013年和2017年.通过震中迁移分析,发现其空间迁移经纬向具有同步性和对称性,其中有6次明显的南迁和6次北迁,纬向迁移对称轴在43°N左右;经向震中迁移,其对称轴在146°E左右,未来强震可能向东北方向迁移,其空间对称轴恰位于千岛群岛海沟和日本海沟两大地质构造的转换处.更多还原

【Abstract】 Natural disaster risk assessment is one of the hot fields of the study of natural disaster.The key point is to identify the trend of significant natural disasters.The strong earthquake activity on the seductions zone shows the correlativity with the earthquake activity in Northeast area at space-time.It is of great significance to analyze the possible occurring time of the earthquake.Study on Tendency of Judgment of futures MS≥8 earthquake in north-western pacific plate seductions using the method of commensurability information extract and butterfly structure.We believe that there is a strong signal that the earthquake whose level is greater than the eighth grade will occur in 2013,2014 and 2017.It becomes more likely in 2014.From the earthquake migration,we find that the space distributions of epifocus have obviously symmetry.There is 6 times of migration from north to south and return.According to these,the MS≥8 earthquake will occur on the eastern side of 146°E longitude and northern side of 43°N latitude,the symmetry axis located demarcation between Japan Trench and Kurite trench.The physical mechanism of the spatial symmetry has not been figured out,further improvements are needed.更多还原