【摘要】 汶川Ms8.0地震发生在青藏高原东缘NE向龙门山断裂带上,造成以映秀、北川为中心的长达300km的同震地表破裂带.初步研究认为,龙门山断裂带大震复发属于特征地震模式.本文在考虑地形差异影响下,用有限元数值模拟方法对汶川地震的大震复发周期进行研究.初步结果表明:龙门山断裂带大震复发周期为3908～4482a,该结果与古地震、断层滑动法、地震矩率、GPS数据确定等给出的结果具有较好的一致性,为龙门山断裂带的地震活动性及地震危险性研究提供重要的定量依据.更多还原

【Abstract】 The great Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake occurred on the NE Longmenshan fault zone on the eastern margin of Tibetan Plateau.It generates a 300 km co-seismic rupture around the Yingxiu-Beichuan counties.Investigations suggestes that earthquake recurrence of Longmenshan fault zone may be treated as characteristic earthquake model.At this,taking the terrain variance into consideration,we employe the finite element model to study the Wenchuan earthquake recurrence interval.The preliminary analysis indicated that the recurrence interval reached 3908～4482 a for the entire fault,and it’s comparatively consistent with the other methods,such as paleoseismic evidence,fault slip rate,earthquake moment rate,GPS observation datum,also provided a quantitative basis for the seismic activity research and earthquake hazard assessment in the Longmenshan fault zone.更多还原