【摘要】 详细叙述了5.12汶川8.0级地震后早期阶段的序列追踪及强余震预测过程,以期全面、如实地记录震后早期阶段的序列跟踪情况,尤其是在科学认识上的进展、反复、乃至错误.分序列类型判定、最大强余震震级估计、强余震活动持续时间、强余震可能发生地点及19～20日6～7级强余震预测等方面,对当时所依据的科学依据、所得结论、判定过程等进行简要归纳,并站在目前的角度对有关问题进行简单评述.更多还原

【Abstract】 The tracing of the aftershocks and strong aftershock forecast of the 5.12 Wenchuan M8 earthquake are reviewed in detail,in order to record the tendency judgement of this catastrophic earthquake in early stage after the mainshock faithfully,especially for progresses,repeats and mistakes in scientific recognition.It includes several aspects,such as judegment of the sequence type,estimation of magnitude of the maximum aftershocks,duration of strong aftershock activity,investigation of potential sites of strong aftershocks,as well as the process and evidence of strong aftershock forecasting with M6～7 in May 19th～20^th.Based on scientific evidence,conclusions and judging processes,and the simple criticism on these questios will be given from present perspective.更多还原